The Leafs have never won the Atlantic division, but a quarter of the way through this season, they look like they could do it. How do they compare to the Panthers, Bruins, and Lightning?
It’s December 2, right before the opening puck drop of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Chicago Blackhawks. Auston Matthews is gearing up to play in his second game back from injury after missing almost all of November with a mysterious injury. Despite not having their captain and best player, the Leafs were impressive through November, and come into tonight’s game with an 8-2 mark in their last 10 games.
The question that many Leafs fans have is, can they keep it up?
The Leafs playoff failures over the past decade have been well documented. Many of the playoff collapses were completely inexcusable, but it could be argued that the strength of the Atlantic division had a key part to play in the losses. The Bruins and Lightning have both been powerhouses, and in the last few seasons, so have the Panthers. This logjam at the top of the division left the Leafs in second or third place in the division, stuck playing tough division rivals in the first round. The team that wins the division, however, gets to play a Wild Card team, on paper a much easier task.
The Leafs are a single point behind Florida with two games in hand, theoretically giving them an advantage in the division (you can see the expanded standings, as well as a breakdown of the playoff format, at nhl.com here). Can the Leafs keep this advantage until the end of the season? In this article, I’ll stack the Leafs against their three most likely challengers for the division title: the Panthers, the Bruins, and the Lightning, based on four categories: Offense, Defense, Goaltending, and Special Teams. At the end, I’ll add up their overall rank in these categories, with the lowest score being the best (1 point to 1st in the league, 32 points to 32nd).
Offense:
Toronto: 3.04 goals per game (15th in the NHL)
The Leafs are muddling along at an almost perfect average rate, but there’s reasons for optimism. As mentioned, Matthews has missed significant time and hasn’t really fired up yet, but if he even flirts with his per game production from last year the rest of the way (he scored 69 goals in 81 games, or 0.85 goals per game) the Leafs will skyrocket. John Tavares is having an improbable bounce-back season, and Nylander and Marner continue to be awesome. My prediction is that the Leafs will settle around 10th in the league offensively: Not world-beaters, but solidly above average.
Florida: 3.64 goals per game (5th in the NHL)
Sam Reinhardt, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Bennett continue to thrive in Sunrise, leading a balanced attack near the top of the league. I don’t see them deviating much from this spot the rest of the way. They’re very good, and overall will continue to score more goals than the Leafs.
Boston: 2.46 goals per game (31st in the NHL)
Boston genuinely can’t score, and if they can’t find secondary scoring behind David Pastrnak, they will continue to struggle. Brad Marchand isn’t producing close to a point a game, and Elias Lindholm has only scored three times. They’re probably better than 31st, but I doubt they’ll rise above 25th the way things are going.
Tampa Bay: 3.74 goals per game (4th in the NHL)
The Lightning have six players averaging around a point per game, and Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel are well above that. The Lightning can score in a wide variety of ways with a wide variety of players, and look like a good bet to continue their strong production.
Defense/Goaltending:
Toronto: 2.61 goals against per game (tied for 3rd in the NHL)
This is where the Leafs have been making hay. Coach Berube’s new structure has paid immediate dividends, sacrificing some offense to form a lockdown defense. New addition Brandon Tanev is one of the best defenders in the league, and deserves consideration for Team Canada’s Four Nations squad in the winter. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has also been excellent. The Leafs also have one of the best goaltending tandems in the league, with Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll trading quality starts. If no one gets hurt, the Leafs should be able to keep it consistent and stay top 5 in this category.
Florida: 3.20 goals against per game (25th in the NHL)
The Panthers run-and-gun style has them near the bottom of the league by this metric, and their goaltending has been doing them no favours: Sergei Bobrovsky is back to struggling a bit after several titanic playoff runs, as he currently owns a .890, 3.04 stat line over 17 appearances. The Panthers are a worthy candidate to shore up the defense at the trade deadline, but until then, it’s a weakness that should keep them from running away with the division.
Boston: 3.08 goals against per game (17th in the NHL)
The Bruins can’t score, but they don’t defend especially well either, making their roughly .500 record surprising. Jeremy Swayman has struggled since holding out for a contract, with a .892, 3.09 mark, and the defense corps is middling despite some big names (Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Nikita Zadorov come to mind).
Tampa Bay: 3.13 goals against per game (20th in the NHL)
Tampa Bay is also struggling to keep the puck out of the net. Victor Hedman is still awesome, but the defense behind him is suspect. Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh are shutdown types who lack foot speed and struggle at times. Andrei Vasilevsky is playing quite well, but isn’t stealing games on his own, as he has so often in the past.
Special Teams:
Toronto: 20% Power Play (20th in the NHL), 81.5% Penalty Kill (8th in the NHL)
The Leafs special teams follow the same trend as everything we just covered: They do not score much but the puck stays out of their net too. The power play started the year freezing cold but has since improved significantly.
Average special teams rank (20 plus 8 divided by 2): 14th in the NHL.
Florida: 24.4% Power Play (9th in the NHL), 80.8% Penalty Kill (11th in the NHL)
The Panthers have good, effective units for both. Nothing to write home about, but will help them win games.
Average special teams rank: 10th in the NHL.
Boston: 11.7% Power Play (32nd in the NHL), 78.5% Penalty Kill (20th in the NHL)
Boston’s power play is absolutely putrid, and contributes to their overall lack of offense. Their penalty kill is better, but that’s not saying much.
Average special teams rank: 26th in the NHL.
Tampa Bay: 23.9% Power Play (10th in the NHL), 77.9% Penalty Kill (22nd in the NHL)
A good power play, but the penalty kill needs improvement if the Lightning are going to challenge the Leafs and Panthers.
Average special teams rank: 16th in the NHL.
For more statistics, head to ESPN here.
Overall Thoughts + Analysis
The Leafs profile as a good team, with an average offense but shutdown defense. The Panthers and Lighting look like good teams with better offenses than defenses (the Panthers look slightly better, but that’s no surprise). The Bruins look like a terrible team who’s lucky to be .500.
Overall breakdown:
Toronto: 15 + 3 + 14 = 32
Florida: 5 + 25 + 10 = 40
Boston: 31 + 17 + 26 = 74
Tampa Bay: 4 + 20 + 22 = 46
Do not rub your eyes, Leafs fans. The Leafs main rivals are deeply flawed in different ways, and the Leafs look well positioned to win the Atlantic for the first time ever.
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