I hope you’ve all been enjoying a blessed, restful holiday period! I know I have. I’ve been enjoying them so much, in fact, that I took an impromptu break from blogging. I’m hoping to be back with weekly articles going forward into the new year and beyond!

Today’s featured topic: The Leafs uninspiring, torpid offensive play.

At the time of writing, the Leafs actually sit atop the Atlantic division, though they are tied with the Florida Panthers in both record (22-13-2) and goal differential (+10). Overall, this represents a very good first half of the season, as they are on pace for over 100 points and should continue to contend for the division. Craig Berube has the Leafs playing a gritty, defensive, “winning” style of hockey, with great defensive metrics and goaltending. However, with the team encountering a recent blip in form, the offense is coming under scrutiny. Now is as good a time as any to look under the hood of the team’s offensive performance so far, and learn about a few stat categories while we’re at it:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table. Generated 12/29/2024.

According to Hockey Reference, “SRS” refers to the Simple Rating System, which combines average goal differential with strength of schedule. Above zero is good, below zero is bad.

Overall, this chart offers a generally rosy view of the Leafs. Their record is comfortably above league average, and despite the concerns with the offense that I and other fans have, the Leafs have still scored more goals than the average NHL team (+6 above average). Power Play goals and percentage hovers right at league average. Ditto for shots and shooting percentage.

However, when compared with last years team, things take a bit of a turn. Refer to the chart below:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table. Generated 12/29/2024.

You can mostly disregard the Win-Loss column, as it’s hard to compare because we’re only halfway through the current season. Interestingly, the Leafs are on pace for a similar finish as last year: Around 12 points above league average. Stats from last year that really pop out include GF/G (this year’s team averages 0.52 goals per game less than last year’s Leafs) and PP% (which is down 3.6% from last year). The team also looks likely to end up with a slightly worse SRS score, fewer shots, and a worse shooting percentage than last year.

Further muddying the waters are Toronto’s Corsi and Expected Goals For statistics at 5 on 5 from this year:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table. Generated 12/29/2024.

A brief breakdown of these numbers: The Leafs have a slightly better shooting percentage than their opponents at 5 on 5, but their CF% (Corsi For) implies that they actually control less of the puck at 5 on 5 than their opponents do. For a contending team, that’s concerning. However, they get a a slightly higher percentage of Scoring Chances For and High-Danger Scoring Chances For than the opposition. This means they have the puck a bit less than the opposition, but generate better opportunities with it. Finally, the HDC% metric shows that the Leafs convert more of their High-Danger chances into goals than the average NHL team.

Now, one last time, let’s compare last year’s Leafs using the same stats compared to the rest of the NHL:

Provided by Hockey-Reference.com: View Original Table. Generated 12/29/2024.

Some notes: The CF% is above 50%, so, last year, the Leafs had the puck more than their opponents, not less. However, the Leafs xGF was actually lower than their aGF (by 8.6 goals, a rather significant margin). This implies that last year’s team got lucky and scored more goals than they should’ve, whereas this year’s team is unlucky and should be scoring slightly more. Finally, the Leafs of last year also compared favourably to the rest of the league in scoring chances and high danger chances.

Conclusion:

I know that was a lot of numbers, and I hope I did the stats justice (I was learning about lots of the stat categories for the first time!).

I think there are a few key takeaways from the stats: The Leafs are worse offensively in almost every category compared to last year, but are probably getting slightly unlucky too, with a better xGF this season than actual goals.

There are a few reasons for optimism, too: If the Leafs can add a healthy Auston Matthews at any point, they’ll get an immediate shot in the arm offensively. Matthews scored 69 times last year. This year, he has 11. Any discrepancy in offensive stats from this year to last starts with Matthews, and if and when he gets going, the Leafs will shoot up the rankings. If the Leafs add depth scoring at the deadline (a third-line centre would be nice) they could also be in for a nice second half boost.

To learn more about stat categories and do further research/check out other teams, I’ve found Hockey Reference to be very helpful! Check it out if you’re interested, and stay tuned for further blog posts here weekly!

To read my last post, click here.