Maple Leafs Gazette

Author: Marshall Chapman

  • A possible Montreal/Toronto trade?

    When I look at the Maple Leafs’ roster, I notice two significant holes in their lineup that need to be filled ahead of the beginning of the 2025 NHL Playoffs: a bottom six, right handed centerman, and a bottom four, right shot defenceman. 

    Going into the trade deadline, a team the Leafs are all too familiar with have two very appealing players that meet both needs. With the Montreal Canadiens on the outside of the playoff race and likely to sell at the upcoming trade deadline, Jake Evans and David Savard would both make excellent Toronto Maple Leafs.

    The Leafs currently do not have a right handed centerman on their roster, much less a right handed penalty killing centerman. Their two bottom six centers are Pontus Holmberg and David Kampf, who have combined for a total of 21 points in 89 games so far this season. Despite a two game surge of productivity from both coming out of the 4 Nations break, that’s not good enough. Both players are minuses on the stat sheet, though both do play a role on the Toronto penalty kill (which succeeds at a 79.6% clip so far this season). Holmberg, a pending UFA, has an $800k cap hit and serves as a solid fourth line center for the Leafs.

    Kampf, on the other hand, has a cap hit of $2.4 million per year until 2026/27. His contract won’t be simple to move – I’d be shocked if he were claimed for free on waivers if the Leafs decided to send him down – which they won’t. Toronto is happy to have Kampf in their lineup, but that’s not to say they wouldn’t be open to an upgrade on him if it means acquiring a rental and shedding his contract. 

    Possible Solution:

    Six hours east on the 401/20, Jake Evans, a pending UFA and Toronto native, continues to play the best hockey of his career as Montreal’s fourth line center. Evans, a right handed-shot, currently has 27 points in 57 games, is a +2, and is the top penalty killer on the 7th best penalty kill in the league (81.5%). His cap-hit is modest at $1.7 million, and at the age of 28, he could be a prime candidate for an extension with his hometown team – especially if a player like David Kampf is moved in the deal. 

    Evans is a proficient faceoff man, hence his importance to one of the league’s best penalty kills: He’s won 52.5% of his faceoffs this year. He’s a few percentage points behind Tavares and Matthews, but a significant upgrade on Holmberg and a slight one on Kampf. Evans is also right-handed, important because he could take the right side defensive zone faceoffs. The Leafs do not have a similar player right now.

    The Canadiens also possess another player who will likely be very popular as we inch closer to the March 7th deadline: defenceman David Savard. 

    When I look at the Leafs’ defence corps right now, I feel good about it – but I know it can improve. I really do believe that David Savard would be a significant improvement on a player like Philippe Myers and even Simon Benoit. 

    Savard is a similar player to Chris Tanev, albeit two inches shorter and 35 pounds heavier. He isn’t fleet of foot, but he plays a sound defensive game. He’s a shot blocking menace, a great penalty killer, and while he doesn’t fight, he plays with an edge and a grit that proves invaluable during a long playoff run – just watch some of his physical highlights from when he won the Cup with Tampa in 2021. In 51 games this year, Savard has 123 blocked shots, 12 takeaways, and 12 points. He’d be an immediate upgrade in bottom four, especially with Jani Hakanpaa’s uncertain bill of health.

    As with anything the Leafs do at the deadline, money will be a problem. Evans’ salary is modest and he can fit into the lineup with relative ease, but Savard at $3.5 million is more problematic, especially with the Canadiens only possessing one retention slot. The Leafs would need to send money back the other way.

    Mock trade:

    Here’s what I’m thinking:

    To Toronto: Jake Evans, David Savard (50% retention), 2025 fourth round pick = combined cap hit of $3.45 million. 

    To Montreal: David Kampf, Conor Timmins, Nikita Grebenkin, 2026 first round pick and a 2025 second round pick = a combined cap hit of $3.5 million with Grebenkin in the minors. In this scenario, Toronto gains 50k in cap space.

    I know it’s a steep price to pay – but let’s break it down.

    Kampf is a usable player, but let’s face it: he’s an overpriced fourth line center with a term – two years of it after this season. As such, he doesn’t possess value: Toronto needs to shed money to make the deal work, as Montreal isn’t helping them for free. Timmins is thrown in to make the money work: he’s a serviceable defenceman, but with Savard and possibly Hakanpaa coming back, he doesn’t have a spot on the roster, especially with a $1.1 million cap hit. These are two roster players the Leafs move on from and replace with significant upgrades to their team. 

    What hurts here is parting with the first, second, and Grebenkin. 

    In 2021, Savard was traded for a first and a third. He’s slowed since then but still plays the same game to about the same effect, to trade him and use their final retention slot, Montreal isn’t moving him unless there is a first round pick coming back. Toronto moves a first round pick next year to acquire a Cup champion who can help them win now. 

    The rumored asking price for Jake Evans is a second round pick plus a prospect. Grebenkin is an attractive prospect, much more so than a guy like Roni Hirvonen, but he pushes the deal over the top and lands Toronto cap retention, an additional fourth rounder and gets them out of Kampf’s deal. This instantly improves the Leafs penalty kill, their defence corps, and gives them an offensive producing pivot in their bottom six. A steep price to pay, sure, but when you’re looking to win a cup, you take your chances.

    For another recent mock trade article, focused on Dylan Cozens of the Buffalo Sabres, click here.

  • Looking Ahead: A Leafs-Senators Playoff series?

    April 20th, 2004: Leafsfansawyer and I were only two years of age. It was the last time the hockey world was treated to a playoff rendition of the Battle of Ontario. Toronto beat Ottawa 4-1 in Game 7 at the Air Canada Center with two goals from Joe Nieuwendyk and one apiece from Chad Kilger and Bryan McCabe. Vaclav Varada had Ottawa’s only tally.

    Many Sens fans will remember the game as Patrick Lalime’s last in a Senator uniform. After three goals in the first, including two atrocious ones from Nieuwendyk (with respect to the 2011 Hall of Famer), he was pulled in favour of Martin Prusek. 

    Since that series, nearly 21 years ago, the Sens and Leafs have made the playoffs in the same season only once: 2017. Ottawa made a run to overtime of the seventh game of the Eastern Conference Final and Toronto bowed out in six games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal.

    But now, two months out from the start of the National Hockey League playoffs – could the province’s two biggest cities be in for a re-match of the Battle of Ontario? At the time of this article’s writing, Ottawa sits in the first wildcard spot in the East with 62 points and a .554 points percentage. Tampa is third in the Atlantic with 66 points and a .600 points percentage. The two teams have traded third/wildcard spots back and forth the last two weeks. Despite a collection of injuries, the Senators are rolling and will come back from the 4 Nations Tournament with a fully healthy Linus Ullmark to backstop them the rest of the way. 

    The Leafs are currently second in the Atlantic, three points back of Florida for first, with two games in hand. The two teams have leapfrogged each other for the top spot all season: these have been and will be the top two seeds in the Atlantic. 

    The Leafs could very possibly pass Florida for first in the Atlantic, which would mean they’d play the first wildcard team (as of February 10th, Ottawa) in the first round of the playoffs. Washington, barring a miracle, will finish as the top seed in the East and play the second wildcard team, which should be one of Detroit, Columbus, Boston, or the Rangers. 

    In this scenario, Toronto, the first seed in the Atlantic, will play Ottawa, the first wildcard team, in the opening round of the playoffs.

    However, what I believe to be the more likely scenario: Toronto doesn’t pass Florida, they remain second in the Atlantic. My prediction is that Ottawa will pass Tampa Bay for third in the Atlantic and the second seed Leafs will play the third seed Senators on the opening night of the Stanley Cup playoffs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. 

    What a show that would be.

    I think a two week break mid-February is exactly what Ottawa needs to give their second and third line centers (Josh Norris and Shane Pinto) enough time to rest and recover before joining a healthy and in-form Team Sweden starter Linus Ullmark for the final 26 games of their season. With a healthy lineup, Ottawa should be able to chase down Tampa.

    Truth be told, I think a series between Ottawa and Toronto would be really even. We all know of the Leafs’ playoff struggles – but I’m not convinced the Senators won’t have those same struggles. 

    The Leafs are under a tremendous amount of pressure: new coach, new make-up, semi-new general manager, new starting goalie, new captain. There cannot be excuses this year – literally, there are no more possible excuses. An early exit in this year’s playoffs is indicative solely of the characters of Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Tavares, the latter two who are both in contract years. 

    In Ottawa, there are also no more excuses – it’s do or die. The Senators, despite finally being out of their rebuild, are not an overly young team, with an average age of 27.5. They’ve been rebuilding since the 2018 draft, where they picked their captain and corner piece, Brady Tkachuk, who is now 25. Jake Sanderson is their only player under-23 playing a major role on their team. Ridley Greig and Zack Ostapchuk (22) are both bottom sixers, the latter is on pace for 8 points over an 82 game season. Despite no playoff appearances in eight years, the Senators can’t use “youth” and “inexperience” as excuses like the Leafs did in the early core four years. An early exit for the Sens, like Toronto, is indicative of the character of their leadership group, frontlined by Tkachuk. 

    The Senators are 2-0 against the Maple Leafs so far this year, out-scoring them 5-1 in their season series with one more game to be played on March 15th. Ottawa has played Toronto hard, holding Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Tavares to a combined one assist. 

    Time will tell if these two teams match up in the playoffs for the first time in the salary cap era, but here’s hoping Ontario, and the wider hockey world, luck out. 

    As always, thanks for reading! For the Maple Leafs Gazette article about a possible Dylan Cozens to the Leafs trade, click here.

  • Around the League: Nashville Predators

    Around the League is a report on major happenings around the National Hockey League, focusing on non-Leafs related teams and players. Updates on the standings, individual player achievements, and dramatic stories are all covered in depth here! This week, guest contributor Marshall Chapman covers the Nashville Predators’ disastrous start to the season. — SB

    Around the League: Nashville Predators by Marshall Chapman

    This past July 1st, I sat on my couch before Canada Day festivities began and watched TSN’s “Free Agent Frenzy.” I distinctly remember feeling glum throughout the signing announcements:

    “Oh, Stamkos to Nashville. That’s too bad, he’d look awesome with Suzuki and Caufield. Oh well, I bet the Habs will take a run at Marchessault.”

    “Oh, wow. Marchessault to Nashville too. The Preds are really doubling down on point producing wingers.”

    “Holy! The Preds signed Brady Skjei too? Carolina’s looking rough.”

    “Saros signs an 8 year extension? Guess he’s not getting moved – what a deal!”

    In one day, Nashville signed two Stanley Cup champs and lethal goal scorers, a top four left-handed defenceman to munch minutes behind Roman Josi, and re-upped one of the top goalies in the league to a mega extension. 

    The talk of the summer was how bold Barry Trotz was, to walk back into Nashville as a rookie GM and lock up three of the most attractive free agents on the market, and then sign his star goalie as well. The latter move alienated one of the top goaltending prospects in the game, Yaroslav Askarov, who demanded a trade out of Nashville, allowing the Preds to recoup both a first round pick in 2025 and David Edstrom, a former first round pick.

    To so many people, the Predators looked like a team ready to take the next step. These additions, on top of a strong prospect pool, insulated a solid core of Josi, Filip Forsberg, Ryan O’Rielly and Gustav Nyquist, and made the Predators seem like a Stanley Cup contender. 

    Still, although I am wrong on so many occasions, I remember sitting on that couch on July 1st and thinking: “It’s too much. Too much change – too aggressive of a ‘speed burst’ on a short rebuild.” Just over a month into the season, I believe I’m correct. 

    Nashville still does not have a number one centerman, and they haven’t since they bought out Matt Duchene two summers ago. Ryan O’Rielly, who is playing the role now, has been a stud since he entered the league in the fall of 2009, but his days of being an elite 1C are over at the ripe age of 33. 

    Further, despite Josi and Skjei on the left side, the Preds don’t have a legit top pair right shot defenceman, meaning that as of November 12th, Josi is playing his off side on the top pair. All this while Alex Carrier and Jeremy Lauzon make up a very average second pair. The team just waived Dante Fabbro on November 10th, where he was claimed by Columbus. There are significant holes in this cap strapped roster.

    The Preds are off to a 5-9-2 start, good for last in the Central Division and tied with Anaheim, Montreal and Columbus for last place in the league. On November 7th, Trotz told the media,  “I’m trying to do some things right now. We will be limited a little bit because of some of the contracts that we do have. If we don’t get it going, then I’m going to start our rebuild plan.”

    Whether this is Trotz trying to jumpstart his team or genuinely considering a rebuild – it seems crazy to consider where expectations were only a few short months ago.

  • Opponent Preview: Montreal Canadiens

    Ahead of various big games this season, I’ll bring in knowledgeable guest contributors who support the Maple Leafs opponent, to give readers a sense of the other team. The Maple Leafs season kicks off against their famous rivals, the Montreal Canadiens, on Wednesday, October 9, a game certainly big enough to warrant a deep dive. My good friend Marshall Chapman, who is the biggest Habs fan I know, graciously agreed to do a write up on the Canadiens for Maple Leafs Gazette.

    If you’re a Leafs fan looking for the scoop on this year’s iteration of the Habs, a Habs fan who somehow ended up on this page, or a hockey fan looking to consume as much content as possible, this is for you! I’ll hand it off to Marshall here—Sawyer

    Montreal Canadiens Preview

    October 9th, season opener, Leafs vs. Habs, downtown Montreal. What could be better?

    As both Toronto and Montreal begin their seasons – both enter a new year feeling optimistic.

    The Montreal Canadiens entered their pre-season on a high note. The emergence of NCAA record setting rookie defenceman Lane Hutson, followed by the rock solid performances of David Reinbacher, Logan Mailloux and Adam Engstrom, proved that the Canadiens boast the best prospect pool of defencemen in the entire NHL. Solid performances from young forwards like Oliver Kapanen and Luke Tuch, with the offensive explosion of 2024 fifth overall pick Ivan Demidov over in the KHL, gave Habs fans lots to look forward to.

    All this, of course, with the best top six the team has iced since, arguably, 2007/08. The start of the season promises the re-unification of a bonafide elite top line of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky, followed by a healthy Kirby Dach centering Alex Newhook and big-time offseason acquisition Patrik Laine. 

    However, hope and optimism for the season crumbled at the 3:49 mark of the fourth preseason game on the schedule when Laine went down with a sprained knee after a collision with Toronto Marlies forward Cedric Pare. This came after Matthew Knies hammered Reinbacher with a clean hit four seconds into the game, knocking him out of the contest. The team announced the following week that both would be out long term: Laine for two to three months, and Reinbacher for up to six. 

    A real GTA Franklin moment: “Ah, shit. Here we go again.” A moment that Canadiens fans are all too familiar with after leading the league in man games lost to injury over the past three years.

    The rest of the Habs preseason snowballed into an absolute gongshow. The game between Toronto and Montreal showcased three fights: Arber Xhekaj jumped Pare, Josh Anderson fought Philip Myers, and Slafkovsky fought Marshall Rifai. Three guys the Canadiens don’t want fighting in preseason. 

    Three nights later the Habs played Ottawa, where Xhekaj and Ridley Greig became public enemies number one for their respective fan bases. Greig hit Dach with a high, late blindside, causing the Hab to leave the game for a brief time. After Greig refused to fight his Canadien-equivalent, Michael Pezzetta, Xhekaj was ejected for a high chicken wing on Tim Stutzle. A brief skirmish between Xhekaj and Brady Tkachuk led to Dach and Greig fighting at the end of the game, and carried over into a rough final preseason game between the two clubs on Saturday night. 

    What appears different about this Canadiens team from years previous has been their willingness to stick up for each other. Whether it be Xhekaj, Pezzetta, Anderson, or the physical emergence of Kaiden Guhle and Jayden Struble on the backend, the Canadiens are a scrappy, pesky team. They’d be well served to add another gritty option in their bottom six, especially with the opening in their forward corps in Laine’s absence. Their tough guys match up well with the Leafs tough guys, led by Ryan Reaves and Simon Benoit. 

    The game has yet to be played, but one thing is for certain: Wednesday’s gonna be fun!