Maple Leafs Gazette

Tag: maple leafs

  • Analysis: Can the Leafs win the Atlantic?

    The Leafs have never won the Atlantic division, but a quarter of the way through this season, they look like they could do it. How do they compare to the Panthers, Bruins, and Lightning?

    It’s December 2, right before the opening puck drop of the Toronto Maple Leafs and Chicago Blackhawks. Auston Matthews is gearing up to play in his second game back from injury after missing almost all of November with a mysterious injury. Despite not having their captain and best player, the Leafs were impressive through November, and come into tonight’s game with an 8-2 mark in their last 10 games.

    The question that many Leafs fans have is, can they keep it up?

    The Leafs playoff failures over the past decade have been well documented. Many of the playoff collapses were completely inexcusable, but it could be argued that the strength of the Atlantic division had a key part to play in the losses. The Bruins and Lightning have both been powerhouses, and in the last few seasons, so have the Panthers. This logjam at the top of the division left the Leafs in second or third place in the division, stuck playing tough division rivals in the first round. The team that wins the division, however, gets to play a Wild Card team, on paper a much easier task.

    The Leafs are a single point behind Florida with two games in hand, theoretically giving them an advantage in the division (you can see the expanded standings, as well as a breakdown of the playoff format, at nhl.com here). Can the Leafs keep this advantage until the end of the season? In this article, I’ll stack the Leafs against their three most likely challengers for the division title: the Panthers, the Bruins, and the Lightning, based on four categories: Offense, Defense, Goaltending, and Special Teams. At the end, I’ll add up their overall rank in these categories, with the lowest score being the best (1 point to 1st in the league, 32 points to 32nd).

    Offense:

    Toronto: 3.04 goals per game (15th in the NHL)

    The Leafs are muddling along at an almost perfect average rate, but there’s reasons for optimism. As mentioned, Matthews has missed significant time and hasn’t really fired up yet, but if he even flirts with his per game production from last year the rest of the way (he scored 69 goals in 81 games, or 0.85 goals per game) the Leafs will skyrocket. John Tavares is having an improbable bounce-back season, and Nylander and Marner continue to be awesome. My prediction is that the Leafs will settle around 10th in the league offensively: Not world-beaters, but solidly above average.

    Florida: 3.64 goals per game (5th in the NHL)

    Sam Reinhardt, Aleksander Barkov, and Sam Bennett continue to thrive in Sunrise, leading a balanced attack near the top of the league. I don’t see them deviating much from this spot the rest of the way. They’re very good, and overall will continue to score more goals than the Leafs.

    Boston: 2.46 goals per game (31st in the NHL)

    Boston genuinely can’t score, and if they can’t find secondary scoring behind David Pastrnak, they will continue to struggle. Brad Marchand isn’t producing close to a point a game, and Elias Lindholm has only scored three times. They’re probably better than 31st, but I doubt they’ll rise above 25th the way things are going.

    Tampa Bay: 3.74 goals per game (4th in the NHL)

    The Lightning have six players averaging around a point per game, and Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel are well above that. The Lightning can score in a wide variety of ways with a wide variety of players, and look like a good bet to continue their strong production.

    Defense/Goaltending:

    Toronto: 2.61 goals against per game (tied for 3rd in the NHL)

    This is where the Leafs have been making hay. Coach Berube’s new structure has paid immediate dividends, sacrificing some offense to form a lockdown defense. New addition Brandon Tanev is one of the best defenders in the league, and deserves consideration for Team Canada’s Four Nations squad in the winter. Oliver Ekman-Larsson has also been excellent. The Leafs also have one of the best goaltending tandems in the league, with Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll trading quality starts. If no one gets hurt, the Leafs should be able to keep it consistent and stay top 5 in this category.

    Florida: 3.20 goals against per game (25th in the NHL)

    The Panthers run-and-gun style has them near the bottom of the league by this metric, and their goaltending has been doing them no favours: Sergei Bobrovsky is back to struggling a bit after several titanic playoff runs, as he currently owns a .890, 3.04 stat line over 17 appearances. The Panthers are a worthy candidate to shore up the defense at the trade deadline, but until then, it’s a weakness that should keep them from running away with the division.

    Boston: 3.08 goals against per game (17th in the NHL)

    The Bruins can’t score, but they don’t defend especially well either, making their roughly .500 record surprising. Jeremy Swayman has struggled since holding out for a contract, with a .892, 3.09 mark, and the defense corps is middling despite some big names (Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, and Nikita Zadorov come to mind).

    Tampa Bay: 3.13 goals against per game (20th in the NHL)

    Tampa Bay is also struggling to keep the puck out of the net. Victor Hedman is still awesome, but the defense behind him is suspect. Erik Cernak and Ryan McDonagh are shutdown types who lack foot speed and struggle at times. Andrei Vasilevsky is playing quite well, but isn’t stealing games on his own, as he has so often in the past.

    Special Teams:

    Toronto: 20% Power Play (20th in the NHL), 81.5% Penalty Kill (8th in the NHL)

    The Leafs special teams follow the same trend as everything we just covered: They do not score much but the puck stays out of their net too. The power play started the year freezing cold but has since improved significantly.

    Average special teams rank (20 plus 8 divided by 2): 14th in the NHL.

    Florida: 24.4% Power Play (9th in the NHL), 80.8% Penalty Kill (11th in the NHL)

    The Panthers have good, effective units for both. Nothing to write home about, but will help them win games.

    Average special teams rank: 10th in the NHL.

    Boston: 11.7% Power Play (32nd in the NHL), 78.5% Penalty Kill (20th in the NHL)

    Boston’s power play is absolutely putrid, and contributes to their overall lack of offense. Their penalty kill is better, but that’s not saying much.

    Average special teams rank: 26th in the NHL.

    Tampa Bay: 23.9% Power Play (10th in the NHL), 77.9% Penalty Kill (22nd in the NHL)

    A good power play, but the penalty kill needs improvement if the Lightning are going to challenge the Leafs and Panthers.

    Average special teams rank: 16th in the NHL.

    For more statistics, head to ESPN here.

    Overall Thoughts + Analysis

    The Leafs profile as a good team, with an average offense but shutdown defense. The Panthers and Lighting look like good teams with better offenses than defenses (the Panthers look slightly better, but that’s no surprise). The Bruins look like a terrible team who’s lucky to be .500.

    Overall breakdown:

    Toronto: 15 + 3 + 14 = 32

    Florida: 5 + 25 + 10 = 40

    Boston: 31 + 17 + 26 = 74

    Tampa Bay: 4 + 20 + 22 = 46

    Do not rub your eyes, Leafs fans. The Leafs main rivals are deeply flawed in different ways, and the Leafs look well positioned to win the Atlantic for the first time ever.

  • The Leafs Power Play is Back

    The never ending media circus surrounding the Leafs has had a few main targets in the early going of this season. John Tavares is struggling. What’s up with Matthews? Will the secondary scoring pick up?

    One question, however, loomed larger than the rest: What in the world is wrong with the power play?

    As recent as last Sunday against the Minnesota Wild, the Leafs power play was rattling along at a roughly 7% clip. The scoreboard graphics indicated they were between 30th and 32nd in the league, a horrendous mark considering the money and talent invested in the players in question.

    Sure, at times it looked okay. The Leafs were stringing together power plays where they held the puck well, got a few shots, maybe had one or two good scoring chances. Enough to think, they’ll score on the next one. But the next one would come, and they wouldn’t.

    For a team built to be more defensively sound than last year, at the cost of some offensive production, having a good power play will surely be critical. Loading up a line with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, and Rielly, with the opponents a man short? It should be an absolute shooting gallery. But it wasn’t. And then Matthews got hurt.

    There is no logical way that subtracting Auston Matthews from any facet of the Leafs improves them. He’s the best player on the team, an offensive menace who gets Selke votes. There’s a case to be made he’s the second best player in the world, sans McDavid (it depends how you see Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, but there’s a case to be made).

    Well, throw logic out the window. The Leafs power play fixed itself overnight without their captain. Tuesday night in Toronto, against the Boston Bruins, the Leafs put three power play goals past Bruins goalie Jeremy Swayman. Matthew Knies, who essentially slotted into the top unit in Matthews’ absence, had a field day, parking himself in front of the Bruins net and wreaking havoc with the defense. He had a goal and an assist on the power play, and played a starring role in all three goals en-route to a 4-0 Toronto victory.

    Then, in a Friday night clash with the Detroit Red Wings, the Leafs did it again. Still without Matthews, this time former captain John Tavares took the wheel, mucking it up in front of the net on Mitch Marner’s goal before sniping a goal of his own for the eventual winner.

    Five power play goals in two games is wild, and it rockets the Leafs power play unit to 16th in the league, converting at an 18.4% clip. If they keep it going against Montreal tonight, it’ll rise even further. If the team can maintain this new momentum when Matthews is back?

    Look out.

  • Gazette Player of the Week: October 29

    With the Leafs (hopefully) back to their winning ways, it’s time for another Gazette Player of the Week. This week’s choice is hard: many players had a good game or two, but throughout the three game losing streak there not one player played particularly well (possibly excluding goalie Anthony Stolarz). However, I feel good about giving the Gazette Player of the Week to William Nylander this time around.

    Nylander was a monster in last week’s game against Tampa Bay, scoring twice and assisting another in a statement win. Like the rest of the team, he was largely invisible against Columbus, though he did avoid going minus in the +/- chart, a modest achievement in a blowout loss. He failed to record a point the next two games, as well, in a letdown against the Blues and a hard-fought loss to the Bruins, before getting back on the scoresheet against the Jets with a goal and two assists, including an absolutely stunning no look pass to Morgan Rielly for the Leafs fourth goal of the night.

    All in all, since last Monday, Nylander compiled 3 goals and 3 assists for 6 points in 5 games. With the entire team generally struggling, he’s the logical choice to me, but the team needs better individual performances than this to move ahead in the standings.

  • Opinion: Leafs season threatens to go south early

    This year was supposed to be different.

    It still might be. There have only been 8 games played, roughly a tenth of the regular season. The Leafs sit at 4-4. Not great, but a reasonable platform to build on. There have been good signs: New signings at defense and goalie have fit in well, and the team has several statement wins already. Chris Tanev, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Anthony Stolarz looked like the perfect complement of signings to help the Leafs, especially come playoffs.

    But, yikes. Less than a week ago, everything was pointed in the right direction. The Leafs smoked Tampa Bay 5-2, scoring at will and suffocating the Lightning all over the ice. They played physically, standing up for themselves and teammates. It was a breath of fresh air, and coming off a tight loss to the Rangers (yours truly was in attendance!), the Leafs looked fine. Good, even.

    Then, one day after playing the Lightning, the Leafs flew to Columbus and posted a truly miserable effort. It was 6-2 and it felt like it could have been worse. Rookie goaltender Dennis Hildeby was shelled, and demoted to the AHL soon after. Nothing was going right.

    Well, it’s a back to back game. They had to travel. They were tired.

    All true. But every NHL team has to play multiple back to back games throughout the season. The good ones don’t get destroyed when it happens, especially not against Columbus. It’s a continuation of the Leafs disturbing habit of playing down to their competition, and losing.

    Still, bad games happen. The team has to take the rest day to regroup, and make sure it doesn’t happen again. That the next game was at home, against new coach Craig Berube’s former team, seemed to ensure that the poor effort would not be repeated. The St. Louis Blues have started fairly strongly, but they’re generally seen as a fringe playoff team this year. Better than Columbus, but far from, say, Dallas or the Rangers.

    All that to say: The Leafs should have won last night, for a multitude of reasons. There was pride on the line, for their new coach and for the players. They had a rest day. They were playing at home, against a team that on paper is worse then them.

    And, in some ways, it was a carbon copy of the Columbus game. The Leafs were outhustled, frustrated offensively, and made multiple boneheaded defensive plays. Some of the lapses were so bad that Berube took turns benching some of his top players, such as William Nylander and Mitch Marner. Joseph Woll looked rusty in his comeback game, but the defense did him no favours. It was an awful game, and piles pressure on team ahead of a huge game in Boston Saturday. The Bruins are also struggling, and once again there is pride on the line. Boston are hated Original Six rivals, and eliminated the Leafs in the playoffs last year. Not for the first time in recent history, either.

    If the effort after the Blues game is the same as it was after Columbus, the alarm bells will get louder.

    For past stories, including season previews, player profiles, and opponent previews, click here.

    For the NHL.com box score of last night’s game against St. Louis, click here.

  • Season Preview Part 3: Goaltending

    With just a few days until the Leafs kick off their 2024-25 season against the Montreal Canadiens, Leafs fans are eagerly awaiting the release of the team’s final roster. Over the past few days, I’ve written up my best guesses about how the offense and defense will look.

    The final Season Preview article covers the Maple Leafs goaltending. I’ll do a brief write up about each goaltender that has been involved in Maple Leafs training camp, as well as trying to project how many games each will appear in.

    Joseph Woll

    Woll is widely regarded as the Maple Leafs starter for 2024-25. One one hand, this represents a huge risk, as he is still relatively unproven. He’s only played in 36 regular season games over three seasons due to injury and inexperience. Woll’s numbers in those games are solid if unspectacular, with a .912 save percentage and a 2.76 goals against average. However, Woll passes the eye test with flying colours, playing a controlled style and possessing strong mental fortitude, signifying that there may be more potential to unlock.

    Woll was also spectacular in the playoffs after taking over from then-starter Ilya Samsonov. Woll posted a .964, 0.86 stat line in three appearances for Toronto. A similar clutch playoff performance this year would basically lock him into a long-term role as the Maple Leafs starting goaltender.

    Prediction: Woll starts 46 games this year, becoming a reliable starter but not a workhorse.

    Anthony Stolarz

    When Ilya Samsonov left to sign with Vegas, the Leafs turned their attention to Stolarz. The 6’6 New Jersey native will hope to build on his stellar work with the Florida Panthers last year, when he turned in a sparkling .925 save percentage and 2.03 goals against average. Like Woll, Stolarz has never played many games in a season. His heaviest workload was 28 games with the Anaheim Ducks back in 2021-22. However, he is far more experienced than Woll overall, with 108 regular season games under his belt, as well as one playoff appearance last year. Stolarz seems to project as a better-than-average backup with the potential to capably fill in for long stretches if needed.

    Prediction: Stolarz gets 28 games this year, matching his career high and giving Woll plenty of rest.

    Matt Murray

    Both goalies that have already been mentioned are wild cards, and so is Murray. The injury-prone netminder missed the entirety of last year with an injury, and is finally healthy and challenging for game time with Toronto. His only Leafs appearances so far came in 2022-23, when he authored a .903/3.01 stat line in only 26 games, but in theory this year’s defense is far better than the one the Leafs used that season. Furthermore, Murray is a known playoff performer, having won back to back Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh at the beginning of his career. Murray is, at the very least, an intriguing third goalie with upside.

    Prediction: Murray plays 8 games filling in for various injuries, and is in good form before the playoffs should the Leafs need him.

    Dennis Hildeby

    The “Hildebeast” returns for a second season in North America after exceeding all expectations with the Marlies last season. At one point last season, there was even rumblings he’d play for the Leafs, and he served as backup on occasion with Samsonov struggling and Woll injured. He’s young enough that another season starting in the AHL will do him good, and barring catastrophic performance or injury from other Toronto goalies, shouldn’t need to be pressed into action this year, either.

    Prediction: Hildeby gets the lion’s share of the net for the Marlies, and pushes for a spot on the Leafs next season.