It’s a good time to be a hockey fan. The Leafs play their first playoff game this Sunday (April 20) and, having won the Atlantic division, face off against the first wild-card seed from the east. This year, that happens to be the Ottawa Senators.

The battle of Ontario has cooled off since the Leafs beat the Sens in four (!) consecutive playoff series back in the early-mid 2000s. The Leafs then had a horrifying stretch of years during the Ron Wilson-Randy Carlyle-early Mike Babcock seasons, during which the Sens were largely good, but since 2018 or so the Leafs have been the far more successful team (playoff yips notwithstanding). The Sens have been bouncing around the bottom of the east, and their captain Brady Tkachuk hadn’t tasted playoff hockey since being drafted. Had the Sens not found success this year, there would have been the potential for a retool or even a rebuild in Ottawa.

But the Sens are back after a prolonged hot streak to end the season, and hockey fans across Ontario (and the world) are glad to see it. In this article, guest contributor Frank Vreugdenhil (a massive Sens fan) and myself (not a massive Sens fan) will lay out how we see this series going. First, Frank’s take:

Series Preview from a Sens fan

2885. 

That’s the number of days since the Senators tragic double overtime loss in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Since that loss they have allowed over 2000 goals against, sent out 140 different skaters, 18 different goalies, and not even really sniffed a playoff spot. That 2016-17 season was really the end of an era for the Sens, while for the Leafs, it was the beginning of one. That same season, the Leafs started a 9 year playoff streak after finishing dead last in the league the year before. This led their fans to believe the future would be extremely bright and full of playoff wins. As we know now, the future was extremely dim and full of playoff losses. There have been highs and lows for both franchises during this time, but ultimately each season has ended in disappointment and early tee times. 

For one franchise, that is guaranteed to change this year. The Battle of Ontario is back for the first time since 2004. These teams hate each other. Their fans hate each other. We are going to get to witness one of the greatest series of this century and I personally cannot wait. The Leafs have won all four series between the teams so far, but since half of the current players were still in diapers at that time, I don’t think that will have any impact on this year’s matchup. If we want to use arbitrary statistics, I could talk about how the Sens have actually had more playoff series wins during the Leafs current playoff streak, even though they have only been in the playoffs for one year, but this is a classy blog and I know that doesn’t mean anything. The only thing that really matters is this current season and how these two teams match up right now in 2025, so let’s get into it.

Why the Leafs should be scared:

1. Brady Tkachuk: There is nobody in the NHL who has wanted to play in the playoffs more than Brady. The Sens have the third best record in the league since the trade deadline, giving him a chance to get 100% healthy. He is going to be the meanest player on the ice and as he proved at the 4 Nations tournament, he can bury goals against the players in the world. If Brady gets going the Leafs are going to have a hard time stopping him.
2. Linus Ullmark: The Sens finally have their goalie. After having the worst team save percentage in the league last year, there is nothing better than having a brick wall in net. He’s battled some injuries and it took him a little bit of time to get adjusted at the beginning of the season but the second half of the season he has looked unbeatable. The Leafs were able to beat him last season when he was with Boston, but this is a new season with a new team. He is the unquestionable number one and if he gets hot, it could be curtains for the Leafs.
3. Grit: The Sens are a grittier team across the board. They don’t have the same high end offensive talent as the Maple Leafs, but in the playoffs playing with skill becomes much harder. Tkachuk, Ridley Greig, Fabian Zetterlund, and the biggest rat of them all, Nick Cousins, are going to make the Leafs hurt. Whether the Leafs win or not, they are going to feel the effects of this series all the way into the summer. 
4. Pressure: The Sens have no pressure. This season is already a success after not making the playoffs for so long. This is a big step in the right direction and with all their major players locked up long term on solid contracts, they should be competitive for years to come. They are playing with house money, as nobody is giving them a serious shot. One Leafs fan even went so far as to say “There is literally no reason not to be confident against the Sens.” This is a very bold claim from the fan of a team notorious for losing playoff series. For Toronto, this series is a must win. After all the years of heartbreak in the playoffs, they are going to have to blow it up if they lose. As the Atlantic division champs, they are likely not going to get a better chance than this. They sold their future to stock up with Brandon Carlo (a good pickup) and Scott Laughton (a “meh” pickup) and they’ll probably have to let Mitch Marner walk for nothing. Will this pressure make diamonds or will they crumble as per usual?

Scary things for the Sens…

1. Auston Matthews: No question about it, he can score. He reached 400 goals faster than Ovi, the greatest goal scorer of all time. Him getting hot would be bad news for the Sens.
2. Mitch Marner: Marner has been known to disappear in the playoffs, but in a contract year, disappearing could cost him millions of dollars, regardless of where he ends up signing. I predict that he is going to have a big playoffs and the Sens are going to have to contain him in order to find success. 
3. Anthony Stolarz: He had a great season. Not great enough to stop the Sens as they won the season series 3-0, but with a 2.14 GAA and a .926 save percentage, Ottawa has their work cut out for them in order to win games. A hot goalie is a problem come playoff time, but regular season success doesn’t always transfer to playoffs. Just look at Connor Hellebuyck last year. However, if Stolarz plays well the Sens will be in trouble.
4. The Supporting Cast: The Leafs have a lot of good players. From William Nylander to Max Domi to Matthew Knies, there are a lot of guys who can score, and I will give it to them that they have a little bit of grit. They also have some mean defensemen in Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo who can lock it down on the back end. There is no doubt that they are a good team. You aren’t going to win the Atlantic division without being a good team. The Sens will have to play their best hockey from lines 1 to 4 if they want to win. 

My Prediction

Sens in 6. This series is going to be a battle but I just can’t see the Leafs getting over the hump this year. People are going to call me crazy but I don’t think the Leafs can handle the Sens physicality. I think Brady is going to have one of the greatest playoff runs in history and there will be nothing the Leafs can do to stop it. If the Sens can contain the Leafs big 3 and stay out of the penalty box, good things are going to happen. Sens Army, let’s ride.

Series Preview from a Leafs Fan

Sawyer here again. I get the last word here, much like the Leafs will have this series with the “last change” rule of home-ice advantage. While I appreciate that Frank’s breakdown is well written and contains some good points, I don’t agree with much of it.

I’ll start by comparing the two team’s overall recent form: Frank is right to point out that the Sens came on strong as the year went on, and I understand that this is a real point of optimism among Ottawa fans. Thing is, the Leafs have been markedly better. In the 27 games since the Four Nations break, the Leafs are 19-6-2, an elite stretch run that gave management the confidence to improve the team at the deadline. The Maple Leafs last 10 games paint an even rosier picture: They’re 9-1 going into the playoffs. The Leafs are HOT.

The Sens were flirting with a playoff spot for most of the first half of the season, with several extended periods where making the playoffs was no sure thing. They finally locked in over the second half of the season to comfortably secure a playoff spot, and this is where much of the Ottawa optimism comes from: The team’s success down the stretch this season. After the Four Nations break, they’ve gone 16-7-3. In their their last 10 games: 6-2-2. Really good numbers, that would inspire confidence against most other playoff teams. But again: the Leafs, who have been comfortably in contention for the division title all year and could theoretically have coasted to a playoff berth, have been even better during the Sens hottest stretch of the season. This may not be surprising, since the Leafs won the division, but I think some of the fan sentiment behind the Sens has been that they’re on a better streak entering the playoffs, riding an unstoppable wave of momentum. It’s not true.

Moving on to more player-specific points: Yes, Brady Tkachuk will be a menace this series, but A). he’s only one player, and B)., Sens fans are massively overrating him. It’s true that he’s an agent of chaos whose game will undoubtedly suit playoff hockey well, but in my opinion he’s a glorified Tom Wilson who’s unable to drive offense on his own to the degree that’s needed to win. If the Sens had an offensive dynamo like Nikita Kucherov or David Pastrnak to pile up points while Tkachuk mucked it up all series, I’d be infinitely more scared, but Tkachuk as the best forward on a winning playoff team? “One of the greatest playoff runs in history”? I’ll believe it when I see it. Consider that his closest statistical comp on the Leafs is Matthew Knies, and Knies is the Leafs fifth best forward. Also, before Sens fans counter that Tim Stutzle will produce the offence, I don’t think his slightly dive-y playing style will serve him this series. I could see Sens fans having the same playoff frustrations with him as Leafs fans have had with Mitch Marner in the past, but I guess we’ll wait and see.

Going back to Knies: his 29 goals and 182 hits this season should have Senators fans very nervous. While I obviously do think Brady Tkachuk has better intangibles than him, that’s not the point I’m trying to make: the point is that Knies adds a similar dimension to the Leafs as Tkachuk does to the Sens, a massive first line power forward capable of both scoring and dragging his team into the fight with physical plays and hits. It’s not only the Senators who have the personnel to play a hard-hitting style this series.

Are the Senators meaner than the Leafs? Maybe, but I believe that the Senators gritty, rat-like antics that their fans seem so fond of will lead to penalty calls. Not as many as there would be in the regular season, but it stands to reason that the Leafs will end up with more power plays than the Senators this series. Tkachuk is not exactly famed for his discipline on the ice, after all. Why bring this up? Well, the Leafs power play has been scorching hot recently, especially since Marner began manning the blueline. The Leafs playoff chances during the Matthews era have largely lived and died with the power play (and have mostly died) but the power play was instrumental in beating the Lightning in round 1 of 2023, and I think it’ll cook the Sens this time around, with their penalty kill sitting a mere 19th in the league this season.

I also think the narrative about the Leafs’ playoff choking might be a bit of a smoke screen at this point: We’re years removed from the Montreal and Columbus horror shows, and the Leafs got the monkey off their back in 2023. Last year’s loss was largely due to bizarre injuries, and they still pushed the Bruins to 7. Recall that Nylander and Matthews both missed multiple playoff games, and goalie Joe Woll was hurt for game 7. It’s tough to win like that. This year, the star players have been in sparkling form, with Nylander second in the league in goals, Marner hitting 100 points with insane defensive metrics and penalty killing, Matthews finally looking healthy and producing at a 95 point pace while dominating possession and expected goals metrics, and Stolarz leading the NHL in save percentage. And that’s saying nothing of the defense, with Tanev, Jake McCabe, and Carlo ready to handle whatever the Sens throw their way.

Now, to be fair: Frank said some nice things about the Leafs in his column, and I’ll do the same for the Sens. Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot are both monsters who can eat minutes and produce on both ends of the ice, with the former pretty clearly the most talented defenseman in the series. Tkachuk does have the chaotic energy to take over a game, and we saw him step it up at the 4 Nations. Stutzle is extremely skilled, and the Leafs will need to be cognizant of his speed and creativity. Dylan Cozens, Drake Batherson, Claude Giroux, and Shane Pinto are strong forward options who will all surely have their moments this series. And Linus Ullmark has had a stellar year, being a large reason why the Sens have taken the leap into the playoffs. Ottawa is a good team, and should only get better in the coming seasons. However…

My Prediction

It’s Leafs in 5 for me. I think that will ultimately not tell the story of the series, with no blowouts and low-scoring, well-contested games. But the Leafs have thrived in such games under coach Berube (who won a cup as recently as 2019), and I’d take their experience, depth, and defensive soundness over the Senators any day of the week. The Leafs also lit up Ullmark in last year’s series, only faltering offensively once Swayman replaced him.

A bonus prediction: the Sens win game 1 in Toronto, and then the lights get too bright for them, under a sea of blue and white fans in both Ottawa and Toronto 🙂

Thanks for reading! Who do you agree with more? What do you think will happen this series? Leave a comment!