Aaaand breathe. The Maple Leafs got past the Ottawa Senators in six games, setting up a second round matchup with the Florida Panthers. I’ll write a series preview to that and post it tomorrow. For now, let’s look back at the first round series that was:

Series Review:

The Leafs handily beat the Sens 6-2 in Game 1 in Toronto, with an incandescent power play that scored pretty much at will. Ottawa didn’t play bad, per se, but made a few big mistakes and were very undisciplined. Putting the final nail in their coffin was their goalie. Linus Ullmark did nothing to redeem himself from past playoff letdowns, allowing six goals and only making 18 saves.

Games 2 and 3 were different. Ottawa settled into the series a bit, driving play better and handily outshooting the Leafs in game 2. But both times, the Leafs seemed content to take a measured, defensive approach to the game. They allowed Ottawa to take point shots, but cleared the front of the net effectively. The result of both games? Overtime wins, courtesy of fantastic performances from Anthony Stolarz and a pair of unlikely overtime heroes in Max Domi and Simon Benoit.

Game 4 unfolded similarly, but with the team’s roles flipped a bit. This time, it was Ullmark outplaying Stolarz, and the Senators getting outshot (though the quality of their chances was far improved). It seemed like Ottawa was making good adjustments to try and get back into the series. Star defenseman Jake Sanderson buried the overtime winner to send the Ottawa crowd home happy. Then, captain Brady Tkachuk made headlines for promising the home crowd that the Sens would be back…

…And delivered on it. Game 5 was an outright disaster for the Leafs, who again managed more shots than Ottawa but got goalied by Ullmark and never looked like they were giving a proper effort. The Leafs got thumped 4-0 and got booed off the ice. Leafs Nation spent the ensuing days resoundingly criticizing Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Suddenly, old, haunting statistics about past Leafs teams were brought up on local talk radio: 0/30 on the power play in elimination games? 1-13 in series-clinching games? A lack of drive and effort in the playoffs? Maybe they aren’t different after all.

With all that in mind, Game 6 was surely anticlimactic for any neutral fan. The Leafs were back to business, getting big goals from Matthews, Nylander, and Max Pacioretty en route to a 4-2 win. The Ottawa crowd delivered a great ovation for their team, and the Leafs headed back to Toronto to prepare for Florida.

Reasons for Optimism

Well, that’s easy. The Leafs won the series, something they rarely do in the playoffs. That alone makes this team different, though the bar for success is low. It’s easy to feel spooked at the Leafs effort in Game 5, but having the mental fortitude to shut out the noise and close the series out on the road is impressive.

While the Matthews era team has been horrendous at delivering playoff success overall, if you zoom in, this is now two second round appearances in three years. Many teams in the NHL would be jealous of that.

Detractors will say that the series was a coin-flip because of the overtimes, and Toronto got lucky. However, as the old saying goes: good teams make their own luck. The Leafs overtime winners showed a clutch factor that the team has had all year. It seems like Berube’s team is adept at winning low-scoring, ugly games, and there will surely be some of those coming against the Panthers.

Reasons for Concern

A few Leafs-specific notes that may be cause for concern: the offense sputtered a bit after the Game 1 outburst. Getting more secondary scoring will be crucial, especially from players like Scott Laughton, Calle Jarnkrok, and Bobby McMann.

Stolarz was amazing, but has never made this many starts in a row in his NHL career. While backup Joseph Woll is a playoff performer and should be ready to go if needed, it’s possible Stolarz slows down against the Panthers.

In a similar vein, Matthews still doesn’t look quite right. Managing whatever injury he’s dealing with will be key to future Leafs success.

At the end of the day, the level of concern among Leafs fans depends entirely on how one feels about the Ottawa Senators. If you think they suck and barely deserved to be in the playoffs, well, the Leafs certainly didn’t blow them out, so that might be cause for concern. However, if you do think the Sens are solid, winning in 6 is a more than acceptable outcome for the Leafs.

I tend to lean towards the “Sens are decent” camp. Hockey fans were sure that Brady Tkachuk was going to thrive in the playoffs, and he was definitely a handful for the Leafs. Jake Sanderson is a true number 1 defenseman, and was money all series. Stutzle, Giroux, Pinto, and the rest of the supporting cast are quite good. Thus, I am not too worried about Toronto’s mini-collapse. In hindsight it seemed like the Sens played especially well in games 4 and 5, rather than the Leafs imploding and beating themselves. I think the team is going into Round 2 strong.

Stay tuned for a detailed Leafs vs Panthers series preview! If you want to go back and check my predictions for Leafs Sens to see how accurate they were, click here.