April 20th, 2004: Leafsfansawyer and I were only two years of age. It was the last time the hockey world was treated to a playoff rendition of the Battle of Ontario. Toronto beat Ottawa 4-1 in Game 7 at the Air Canada Center with two goals from Joe Nieuwendyk and one apiece from Chad Kilger and Bryan McCabe. Vaclav Varada had Ottawa’s only tally.

Many Sens fans will remember the game as Patrick Lalime’s last in a Senator uniform. After three goals in the first, including two atrocious ones from Nieuwendyk (with respect to the 2011 Hall of Famer), he was pulled in favour of Martin Prusek. 

Since that series, nearly 21 years ago, the Sens and Leafs have made the playoffs in the same season only once: 2017. Ottawa made a run to overtime of the seventh game of the Eastern Conference Final and Toronto bowed out in six games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinal.

But now, two months out from the start of the National Hockey League playoffs – could the province’s two biggest cities be in for a re-match of the Battle of Ontario? At the time of this article’s writing, Ottawa sits in the first wildcard spot in the East with 62 points and a .554 points percentage. Tampa is third in the Atlantic with 66 points and a .600 points percentage. The two teams have traded third/wildcard spots back and forth the last two weeks. Despite a collection of injuries, the Senators are rolling and will come back from the 4 Nations Tournament with a fully healthy Linus Ullmark to backstop them the rest of the way. 

The Leafs are currently second in the Atlantic, three points back of Florida for first, with two games in hand. The two teams have leapfrogged each other for the top spot all season: these have been and will be the top two seeds in the Atlantic. 

The Leafs could very possibly pass Florida for first in the Atlantic, which would mean they’d play the first wildcard team (as of February 10th, Ottawa) in the first round of the playoffs. Washington, barring a miracle, will finish as the top seed in the East and play the second wildcard team, which should be one of Detroit, Columbus, Boston, or the Rangers. 

In this scenario, Toronto, the first seed in the Atlantic, will play Ottawa, the first wildcard team, in the opening round of the playoffs.

However, what I believe to be the more likely scenario: Toronto doesn’t pass Florida, they remain second in the Atlantic. My prediction is that Ottawa will pass Tampa Bay for third in the Atlantic and the second seed Leafs will play the third seed Senators on the opening night of the Stanley Cup playoffs at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. 

What a show that would be.

I think a two week break mid-February is exactly what Ottawa needs to give their second and third line centers (Josh Norris and Shane Pinto) enough time to rest and recover before joining a healthy and in-form Team Sweden starter Linus Ullmark for the final 26 games of their season. With a healthy lineup, Ottawa should be able to chase down Tampa.

Truth be told, I think a series between Ottawa and Toronto would be really even. We all know of the Leafs’ playoff struggles – but I’m not convinced the Senators won’t have those same struggles. 

The Leafs are under a tremendous amount of pressure: new coach, new make-up, semi-new general manager, new starting goalie, new captain. There cannot be excuses this year – literally, there are no more possible excuses. An early exit in this year’s playoffs is indicative solely of the characters of Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Tavares, the latter two who are both in contract years. 

In Ottawa, there are also no more excuses – it’s do or die. The Senators, despite finally being out of their rebuild, are not an overly young team, with an average age of 27.5. They’ve been rebuilding since the 2018 draft, where they picked their captain and corner piece, Brady Tkachuk, who is now 25. Jake Sanderson is their only player under-23 playing a major role on their team. Ridley Greig and Zack Ostapchuk (22) are both bottom sixers, the latter is on pace for 8 points over an 82 game season. Despite no playoff appearances in eight years, the Senators can’t use “youth” and “inexperience” as excuses like the Leafs did in the early core four years. An early exit for the Sens, like Toronto, is indicative of the character of their leadership group, frontlined by Tkachuk. 

The Senators are 2-0 against the Maple Leafs so far this year, out-scoring them 5-1 in their season series with one more game to be played on March 15th. Ottawa has played Toronto hard, holding Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Tavares to a combined one assist. 

Time will tell if these two teams match up in the playoffs for the first time in the salary cap era, but here’s hoping Ontario, and the wider hockey world, luck out. 

As always, thanks for reading! For the Maple Leafs Gazette article about a possible Dylan Cozens to the Leafs trade, click here.