The Leafs are at a crossroads. After a second-round collapse to the Florida Panthers a year ago, the team cratered in 2025-26. Numerous issues compounded throughout the season, resulting in the team going 32-36-14 for a measly 78 points. Some fans put the lions share of this failure on the loss of star winger Mitch Marner, but that narrative feels a bit lazy – many of the Leafs issues stemmed from defensive injuries, a lack of puck movement from that same defense, and an archaic dump-and-chase playing style. Auston Matthews had a dreadful year by his standards, and got taken out of the season early by a now-infamous hit by Radko Gudas.
On top of this, the “culture issues” that have plagued the team for years became inescapable. The entire team stood and watched when Matthews went down, much to the consternation of coaches, pundits, and fans. The team completely tanked down the stretch. The post-Olympic break Maple Leafs played some of the most uninspired, non-competitive hockey I’ve ever watched. And with outgoing GM Brad Treliving’s past moves, the Leafs first round pick (top 5 protected) looked fated to go straight to the Boston Bruins. This outcome would waste a year of tanking and leave the Leafs with a dismal outlook going forward. Imagine gifting a player like Keaton Verhoeff or Caleb Malhotra to the Bruins? Nightmare fuel.
There’s a much-maligned piece of writing in “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” that goes: “Somehow, Palpatine returned.” It’s a vague, inexplicable explanation that viewers just kind of had to accept.
Somehow, the Maple Leafs returned, and the hockey internet exploded.
The ping pong lottery balls went Toronto’s way on draft lottery night, gifting new top executives Mats Sundin and John Chayka the first overall pick. It’s the third time in franchise history the Leafs have the first overall pick. The other two selections? Wendel Clark and Auston Matthews. It’s a new hope for a franchise in dire straits. In the below analysis, I’m largely going to assume Gavin McKenna is the pick, assuming they don’t trade down. But Swedish star Ivar Stenberg is also a possibility at 1 overall.
I’ll briefly lay out three drastically different paths the Leafs could take this offseason, and give my take on which one is best.
Offseason Plan 1: Rebuild
The nuclear option. Recent reports are coming out that Auston Matthews is taking a “wait-and-see” approach before committing to the Leafs for the upcoming season. There’s a case to be made that they should try to move him for assets to pair with the incoming pick. Matthews’ value has waned due to injuries and inconsistent production. However, he’s still a superstar centre with insane defensive metrics, faceoff effectiveness, and game-breaking offensive talent. He’s 28 and has two year left on his deal. He’d fetch a strong collection of picks and prospects and allow the Leafs a fresh start of sorts.
Less clear would be the future of William Nylander, who, like Matthews, has a full no movement clause and is signed through 2032. My extremely uninformed opinion is that Nylander is much more sold on Toronto than Matthews (he’s signed long term and seems to love the city). However, a Nylander trade could generate a similar collection of assets as Matthews would. Other moves could include Morgan Rielly and one or both of the Leafs main goalies.
Moving both Matthews and Nylander would allow the Leafs to overhaul the team by picking one of Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg as the new offensive centerpiece of the future. Then, they could rebuild the defense using any extra picks from the big trades. John Tavares could stay to mentor young players and handle some tough matchups, and the team rebuilds with a core of McKenna-Knies-Cowan and a collection of young defensemen. Almost every team in the Atlantic is looking competitive for the near future. A proper rebuild now could fix the team just in time for some current powerhouses to come back down to earth.
This path forward depends on what Matthews is thinking – but a massive roadblock to this plan is that the Leafs don’t have their 2027 or 2028 first round picks. Tanking back into the lottery is useless without those picks, so management will probably avoid this route if possible.
Offseason Plan 2: Run it Back
Unpopular. Almost certainly unwise. But if Leafs management isn’t sold on the top of the draft as being generational, they could try and flip the pick for win-now assets. They’d count on a new coach, fewer injuries, and a well-rested Matthews to get them right back into the mix. This would punt any talk of a rebuild another two years down the road, when the Leafs have their draft picks and Matthews’ contract comes due.
If there’s not an appetite for a full win-now move for veteran/established players, I could also see the logic in trading back in the draft. Getting a Chase Reid, Carson Carels, or Keaton Verhoeff type player would fill a huge need for defense, and they’d get another player or prospect out of it to help fill out the team.
Offseason Plan 3: Retool
Another idea would be to draft McKenna (keep it simple) and pair him with Matthews immediately. Matthews gets a setup man on the first line and power play and McKenna’s defensive liabilities get sheltered by Matthews. The money the team saves from needing to sign a winger goes to the defense in free agency. This plan would, of course, rely on a motivated Matthews to commit to the project, as the team probably wouldn’t seriously contend right away. My guess is this model would have them fighting for a wild card in 26-27 and making a leap back to contention the season after. A critical read of this plan is that it’s re-treading old ground by essentially throwing a Marner regen back into the mix. To me, however, the 3 year rookie ELC makes all the difference in the world. You essentially get a first-line type player for free, and can invest big in the defense, something you couldn’t do with Marner on the books.
This way, you get a year of figuring it out, then hopefully a year with a playoff run. From there, you can either re-sign Matthews or let him walk once you have your draft picks again. The “Retool” option is far and away my favourite of the three options.
What do you think? Do you resonate with any of these paths forward? Do you have other ideas to add? Please comment if so!
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